Bloom Energy [BE] — Catalyst Calendar
⚠️ SUPERSEDED IN PART — 2026-07-29
The position verdict in this document is retired. Under the current framework (
references/criteria.md, 2026-07-29) the memo outputs an analysis, not a position. Whether an analysis justifies a position is a question about a particular book, and two books answer it differently.The Gate block and the Gate 4 expected-return arithmetic below are also superseded, by the named Criteria (each with a type: BINDING or MEASURED, returning PASS / FAIL / INDETERMINATE), the reverse-DCF implied-path test, and a separate 12-month target.
→ Current analysis:
Bloom_Energy_Criteria_and_Valuation_2026-07-29.mdEverything else here — the research, the evidence, the mechanism work — stands. Residual references to "Watchlist" in the prose below are the historical record of the 2026-07-28 assessment and are left intact deliberately.
Phase Space Research | July 28, 2026 | Task 6 of 9
Every entry is dated (or date-bounded), checkable, and carries an explicit upgrade/downgrade threshold. A catalyst with no threshold is a diary entry, not a catalyst.
DATED EVENTS
| # | Date | Event | Upgrade threshold | Downgrade threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | ~Aug 5–10, 2026 | Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Reconciles the $45.2m gap between the $261.3m grant-date warrant FV and the $306.5m carried asset; discloses Q2 warrant contra-revenue; re-quantifies backlog with a duration or 12-month conversion % | Backlog again absent; warrant contra-revenue larger than ~$40m in the quarter (would mean underlying revenue growth is materially overstated by the headline) |
| C2 | ~Oct 9, 2026 | Oracle warrant expiry — 6 months from the Apr 9 grant date. 3,531,073 shares at $113.28 | Exercised: BE receives $400.0m cash, ~1.1% dilution, and the contra-revenue overhang becomes a fixed known quantity | Not exercised (would require the stock below $113.28, itself a −38% move) — or renegotiated/extended, which would signal the Oracle relationship is being repriced |
| C3 | ~late Oct 2026 | Q3 2026 earnings | Revenue ≥$1,150m (tracking to the $4.2bn high end) with non-GAAP op margin ≥22% | Revenue ≤$1,050m — below Q2 — confirming the low-end sequential-decline path |
| C4 | ~early Feb 2027 | Q4/FY2026 results | FY2026 lands ≥$4.15bn AND backlog is re-disclosed with growth; FY2027 guide ≥$5.6bn (+38%) | FY2027 guide below ~$5.0bn (+23%), which would break the growth-persistence assumption the multiple rests on |
| C5 | Ongoing, Q3–Q4 2026 | Hunterbrook follow-through — the outlet said more detail would follow | Independent verification that scandium supply is genuinely non-China, or the story simply dies | Any SEC comment letter, auditor change, restatement, or a documented China-sourcing chain |
CONDITION-BOUND (undated) TRIGGERS
| # | Trigger | Threshold | Gate repaired |
|---|---|---|---|
| C6 | Price reaches ~$110 | At the house exit multiple and 15% Ke, E[R] clears the 4.7% hurdle on price alone | Gate 4 |
| C7 | Backlog re-quantified WITH duration | Any weighted-average duration or 12-month conversion percentage disclosed | Gate 2B leg 3 — the single highest-value disclosure BE could make |
| C8 | A genuine estimate variant emerges | Consensus FY2027 diverges from the house forecast by >10% in either direction | Gate 2A (currently there is no variant — house = guidance = consensus) |
| C9 | Competitive entry | A hyperscaler publicly selects gas turbines or a rival fuel cell over Bloom for a named AI campus | Gate 1 — would attack the mechanism directly |
WHAT WOULD ACTUALLY CHANGE THE DECISION
Position verdict retired 2026-07-29. The gate references below are the 2026-07-28 record; under the current framework the binding Criteria are Quality (FAIL, gross-margin limb) and Valuation (FAIL, −8.2pp). Ranked by how much each event moves the decision, not by how newsworthy it is:
- C6 (price to ~$110) — the only trigger that repairs Gate 4, which is the gate failing by the widest margin (−16.4pp on the corrected basis; see the memo's §8). Given 122.5% three-month realised volatility, a −45% move is a routine quarterly event for this security, not a tail. This is the most probable path to actionable.
- C7 / C1 (backlog with duration) — repairs Gate 2B leg 3 and would, for the first time, let the duration variant be sized. Alphabet failed the identical leg; Microsoft passes it. This is a disclosure choice entirely within BE's control.
- C3 (Q3 revenue ≥$1,150m) — does not repair any failing gate on its own, but raises the defensible exit multiple, which is the lever Gate 4 is most sensitive to after price.
- C2 (warrant exercise) — largely mechanical and already anticipated; converts an uncertain overhang into a known one. Low decision value, high certainty.
Note on C5: the Hunterbrook allegations are not on this list as a long-thesis catalyst because nothing I can check in the filings supports the accounting claims — the two aggressive items I found (the warrant contra-revenue and the once-only backlog) are fully disclosed, and Q2's revenue was materially higher-quality than Q1's (related-party revenue fell from 49.7% of the quarter to 0.3%). C5 is carried as a downside monitor only.